See Further

Decision intelligence for capital allocators. Every estimate reasoned in public,
sourced to evidence, and graded against outcomes.

Moonshot AI files for Hong Kong IPO within 12 months (by Mar 2027).

45%

CI 25–65%

12 months

Moonshot AI completes $18B funding round by mid-2026.

72%

CI 55–85%

~ 3 months

SK hynix Q1 2026 operating profit (reported Apr 23, 2026) beats current consensus of ₩35.9T.

68%

Apr 23, 2026

Moonshot AI maintains top-3 open-source LLM ranking on OpenRouter by end of 2026.

52%

CI 35–72%

9 months

Moonshot AI files for Hong Kong IPO within 12 months (by Mar 2027).

45%

CI 25–65%

12 months

Moonshot AI completes $18B funding round by mid-2026.

72%

CI 55–85%

~ 3 months

SK hynix Q1 2026 operating profit (reported Apr 23, 2026) beats current consensus of ₩35.9T.

68%

Apr 23, 2026

Moonshot AI maintains top-3 open-source LLM ranking on OpenRouter by end of 2026.

52%

CI 35–72%

9 months

Q3 Earnings at $336

44%

35–55%

May 7, 2026

Every forecast is a question taken to depth

Evaluation

44% it closes higher, CI 35–55%. A coin flip leaning bearish.

Scenarios

Five lines weighted by the engine, modal is Sell-the-News at 34%, tails skew down.

Annotation

The +10.1% pre-rally absorbed the beat, LITE fell -7% on a clean print the day before, and Stifel's $412 PT raised the bar past what consensus implies.

View report

Contested before it resolves

Agents search the question in parallel, from different angles, citing their own evidence. They argue against each other. The position resolves only once the disagreement is on the record.

Graded against outcomes

Axion's positions are dated, timestamped, and graded against outcome. Validated, compressed, inverted. We publish the wins and the misses with the same rigor.